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 Caldwell |
The past is prologue.
The history of the 21st century is being forecast by events in our time. Prognoses for the future are mixed. We may expect continuing advances in scientific knowledge and technology, and may gain new insights into human behavior, although we may not like all that we learn. Information to enlarge and sustain the quality of life may be enlarged, but not necessarily employed. There are present trends threatening the future of humanity and the biosphere. But to arrest or reverse them would require changes in attitudes, interest and expectations that the greater number of mankind appear unready to make.
In 1992, the Union of Concerned Scientists published the "World Scientists' Warning to Humanity." It was signed by more than 1,600 scientists from the leading national academies of science and 104 Nobel Prize winners. The warning began with the statement that "Human Beings and the Natural World are on a Collision Course--If not checked, many of our current practices put at risk the future that we wish for human society--Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision that our present course will bring about."
The scientists identified six areas of concern: Atmosphere, Water Resources, Oceans, Soil, Forests and Living Species.
The warning stressed the consequences of unrestrained growth of human populations "that can overwhelm any efforts to achieve a sustainable future." The world today is a "poorhouse" with millions of people living in environments that they have themselves impoverished. Many of these millions want out, and the United States is their refuge of choice. Their influx into the United States is facilitated by a national ideology that places sentiment and compassion over a realistic assessment of consequences. The declaration that "we are a nation of immigrants" is often sufficient to stop any consideration of unlimited growth in human numbers and needs in America's environmental future.
In theory, education at all levels could bring a greater degree of perceptual clarity and foresight toward shaping the environmental future. Higher education might play a determining role in infusing throughout society a sense of reality based on demonstrable evidence of probabilities. There are some encouraging indications that this is beginning to happen. The School of Public and Environmental Affairs at Indiana University represents an early effort in this direction. Nevertheless, academic inertia and popular apathy weigh heavily against the action necessary to avoid the consequences of adverse trends. The U.S. Congress has consistently refused to consider measures to monitor and evaluate trends in the interactions between population, resources and environment. Entertainment is America's number one business, and popular sentiment appears to be "Don't tell us, we don't want to know."
(Editor's note: See today's Bookmark column for information about Caldwell's latest book, "The National Environmental Policy Act: An Agenda for the Future.")
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